The recent deal between Somaliland and Ethiopia has significant implications for the Horn of Africa, especially from a security perspective. This agreement, signed in early 2024, allows Ethiopia access to the Red Sea port and includes provisions for Ethiopia to recognize Somaliland as an independent nation. This has raised concerns and received widespread condemnation, impacting regional dynamics and sparking diplomatic tensions.
From Somalia’s perspective, the deal is seen as a direct challenge to its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Somali government views Ethiopia’s unilateral recognition of Somaliland as an attack on its sovereignty and has vehemently rejected the deal, calling it unauthorized and a transgression of its independence. Somalia’s reaction reflects deep-seated issues between Mogadishu and Hargeisa, with the latter seeking independence since 1991. The deal’s timing is particularly sensitive, as it came just after Somalia and Somaliland agreed to restart Djibouti-led mediations aimed at resolving their disputes.
Turkey has also expressed its support for Somalia, viewing the deal as an affront to Somalia’s integrity and reaffirming its commitment to Somalia’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Turkey’s stance is significant given its quest for influence in Africa and its historical support for Somalia. The deal might further strain relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, two countries with a history of military conflict and animosity.
The deal has implications beyond the immediate parties involved. It has received condemnation from various international organizations and countries. The Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the United States, the European Union, and the African Union have all expressed concerns, emphasizing the need to respect Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. They have called for dialogue and peaceful resolution of disputes, underscoring the importance of maintaining peace, security, and stability in the Horn of Africa region. The deal’s repercussions have extended to countries like Egypt, which, already at odds with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, condemned the agreement and stressed the importance of respecting Somalia’s territorial integrity.
From a security perspective, the deal could exacerbate regional tensions and contribute to a complex web of diplomatic and military rivalries in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia’s quest for access to the sea is a critical national interest, given its landlocked status and reliance on ports in neighboring countries for maritime trade. Historically, Ethiopia has used Djibouti’s port as its main trade route since losing access to the sea after Eritrea’s independence in 1993. The deal with Somaliland could alter these dynamics, potentially leading to shifts in regional alliances and trade routes.
The agreement may also influence internal conflicts within the region. In Ethiopia, the deal could be seen as a strategic move by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to strengthen his political position amid domestic challenges. However, it could also fuel unrest in regions like Oromia and Amhara, which are already facing instability. For Somaliland, the deal could bolster its quest for international recognition but also aggravate internal disputes, especially with the ongoing conflict in Las Anod where Somaliland lost major portion of the state to SSC-Khatumo administration which is now part of the federal government of Somalia.
In conclusion, the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal represents a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa. Its implications for regional security are profound, with potential for increased tensions, internal conflicts, and changes in regional power dynamics. The reaction from the international community underscores the deal’s complexity and the need for careful navigation to avoid further destabilization in an already volatile region.
